Mild Winter and Rain-Free Christmas Forecasted for Spain

As the holiday season approaches, Spain is gearing up for an unusually mild winter, with forecasts indicating above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall. Here’s what expats in Spain can expect for the upcoming Christmas period.

Above-Average Temperatures

Following a remarkably warm autumn, with November 2024 being the warmest since 1961, Spain is set to continue this trend into winter. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) predicts that temperatures will remain higher than normal, particularly in the north-west and southern regions of the mainland, as well as in the Balearic and Canary Islands.

Ruben del Campo, a spokesperson for AEMET, noted that there is a significant probability, ranging between 40% and 70%, that this winter will be among the 20% warmest on record. While it is challenging to predict if it will be the warmest, the current indicators suggest a milder winter than usual.

Rainfall Projections

In contrast to the warmer temperatures, rainfall is expected to be below average. AEMET forecasts a 50% probability of less than normal rainfall for the winter period. This means that expats can look forward to clearer skies and less chance of heavy rain, making outdoor activities more enjoyable during the holidays.

Christmas Weather Outlook

For Christmas, the weather is expected to be calm and mild, with temperatures slightly higher than normal in most areas. The week leading up to Christmas is predicted to be free of significant storms or freezing weather, providing ideal conditions for festive outings and celebrations.

In the Balearics, residents and visitors can anticipate plenty of sunshine, although there might be a few isolated showers. The overall outlook is positive, with mild temperatures prevailing across the region[3][4].

Post-Christmas Weather

While Christmas itself is expected to be mild, the real winter weather is anticipated to kick in around Epiphany (January 6). Until then, the weather is likely to remain relatively calm, allowing for a pleasant holiday season without the need for heavy winter clothing[2].

Year in Review

2024 is set to be the third warmest year on record since 1961, following closely behind 2022 and 2023. This trend highlights the ongoing pattern of warmer temperatures in Spain, a factor that expats should consider when planning their activities and wardrobe for the season.

In summary, expats in Spain can look forward to a warm and relatively dry winter, with a rain-free Christmas and plenty of sunshine. This makes it an ideal time to enjoy the festive season outdoors, whether that's exploring the countryside, visiting local markets, or simply enjoying the mild weather with family and friends.